The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) landscape in North and West Africa is undergoing significant transformation. This analysis focuses on markets where EXXING has operational experience: Morocco, Tunisia, Chad, and Ivory Coast, with observations from broader Francophone African markets.
These markets represent distinct regulatory environments and development stages, offering insights into infrastructure investment, mobile money evolution, and spectrum allocation strategies.
Trend One: The 5G Tipping Point
Whilst 5G deployment has been gradual across the continent, 2025 marks a tipping point. The shift from pilot projects to commercial scale-up is evident in key markets including Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Morocco.
5G Deployment Status in EXXING Markets (2025)
| Country | 5G Launch | Urban Coverage | Key Use Cases | EXXING Experience |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 2023 | 55% | Tourism, smart ports, FWA | Projects #74, #85-86 (a Moroccan telecom operator FTTH/5G) |
| Tunisia | Pilot phase | 15% | Enterprise trials | Projects #4, #50, #55 (regulatory analysis) |
| Chad | Planning | 0% | 5G strategy development | Project #20 (MVNO & 5G strategy) |
5G Investment and Returns
| Market | 5G CAPEX (2023-2027) | Projected 5G Revenue (2027) | ROI Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | $1.8B | $2.4B | 4-5 years |
| Nigeria | $1.2B | $1.8B | 5-6 years |
| Kenya | $0.6B | $0.9B | 5-6 years |
| Morocco | $0.8B | $1.1B | 4-5 years |
| Egypt | $1.0B | $1.5B | 5-6 years |
Strategic Insight: The focus is shifting from consumer-centric 5G use cases to B2B applications, particularly in mining, logistics, and smart ports. Operators are increasingly viewing Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a primary use case to bridge last-mile connectivity gaps, offering fibre-like speeds without heavy civil engineering costs. FWA is expected to account for 35% of 5G revenues in Africa by 2027 (versus 18% globally) [2].
5G Monetisation Strategies
| Strategy | Description | Revenue Potential | Implementation Complexity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer FWA | Home broadband replacement | High | Medium |
| Enterprise connectivity | Private networks, campus coverage | Very High | High |
| IoT platforms | Agriculture, utilities, logistics | Medium | Medium |
| Network slicing | Dedicated capacity for verticals | High | Very High |
| Edge computing | Low-latency applications | Medium | High |
Trend Two: Mobile Money Platforms in Francophone Africa
Mobile money adoption in Francophone West Africa has evolved from basic transfers to integrated financial services. This trend is particularly evident in markets with limited traditional banking infrastructure.
Major Fintech M&A Activity (2024-2025)
| Deal | Acquirer | Target | Value | Strategic Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTN MoMo expansion | MTN Group | Airtel Money (Uganda) | $120M | Regional consolidation |
| Safaricom M-Pesa | Safaricom | Kenyan SME lenders | $85M | Embedded finance |
| Orange Money | Orange | Wave Mobile Money | $200M | West Africa dominance |
| Flutterwave | Flutterwave | Disha (Ghana) | $35M | Cross-border payments |
Super-App Evolution
The super-app model—combining payments, commerce, and services in a single platform—is gaining traction across Africa.
| Platform | Parent | Services | MAU (M) | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-Pesa | Safaricom | Payments, lending, savings, commerce | 65 | Kenya, Tanzania, DRC, Ethiopia |
| MoMo | MTN | Payments, lending, insurance, commerce | 85 | 15 African markets |
| Orange Money | Orange | Payments, lending, remittances | 35 | 17 African markets |
| OPay | Opera | Payments, rides, food delivery | 25 | Nigeria, Egypt |
| Wave | Wave | Payments, transfers | 12 | Senegal, Ivory Coast |
Market Dynamics:
| Metric | 2022 | 2024 | 2027 (Projected) | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile money accounts (M) | 763 | 920 | 1,350 | 12% |
| Transaction value ($B) | 836 | 1,100 | 1,800 | 17% |
| Active agents (M) | 3.2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 17% |
| Average transaction ($) | 45 | 52 | 65 | 8% |
Trend Three: Infrastructure Investment Surge
Africa is experiencing unprecedented investment in digital infrastructure, driven by both international capital and local operators.
Infrastructure Investment by Category
| Category | 2024 Investment | 2025-2030 Pipeline | Key Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Submarine cables | $2.5B | $4.0B | 2Africa, Equiano, PEACE |
| Data centres | $1.8B | $8.0B | Equinix, Digital Realty, Africa DC |
| Fibre networks | $3.2B | $12.0B | Liquid, MainOne, operators |
| Tower infrastructure | $2.0B | $6.0B | IHS, Helios, American Tower |
| Total | $9.5B | $30.0B | — |
Fibre Penetration Trajectory
| Country | 2024 FTTH/B Penetration | 2027 Target | Investment Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 18% | 35% | $2.5B |
| Morocco | 12% | 28% | $1.8B |
| Kenya | 8% | 20% | $1.2B |
| Nigeria | 3% | 12% | $3.5B |
| Egypt | 6% | 18% | $2.0B |
Investment Drivers:
- Sovereign cloud requirements: Data localisation regulations driving data centre investment
- Enterprise demand: Digital transformation requiring reliable connectivity
- Hyperscaler entry: Microsoft, Google, AWS establishing African presence
- Development finance: DFIs providing concessional capital for infrastructure
Trend Four: Regulatory Modernisation
African regulators are modernising frameworks to enable digital economy growth whilst protecting consumers and promoting competition.
Regulatory Developments by Theme
| Theme | Key Developments | Markets | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data protection | GDPR-style legislation | Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Morocco | Compliance costs, data localisation |
| Open banking | API mandates, licensing | Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa | Fintech enablement, competition |
| Spectrum allocation | 5G auctions, spectrum sharing | Multiple | 5G deployment acceleration |
| Infrastructure sharing | Active sharing mandates | Nigeria, Kenya | Cost reduction, coverage expansion |
| Digital taxation | DST, e-commerce taxes | Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania | Revenue impact, compliance |
Spectrum Allocation Progress
| Country | 5G Spectrum Allocated | Auction Revenue | Key Bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 1,060 MHz | $850M | 700, 2600, 3500 MHz |
| Nigeria | 400 MHz | $550M | 3500 MHz |
| Kenya | 200 MHz | $180M | 700, 2600 MHz |
| Morocco | 300 MHz | $320M | 700, 3500 MHz |
| Egypt | 350 MHz | $420M | 2600, 3500 MHz |
Trend Five: Digital Services Diversification
Operators are diversifying beyond connectivity into digital services to capture value from growing data consumption.
Digital Services Revenue Mix
| Service Category | 2024 Revenue | 2027 Projected | CAGR | Key Players |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile money | $8.5B | $14.0B | 18% | MTN, Safaricom, Orange |
| Digital content | $2.8B | $5.2B | 23% | Multichoice, Showmax, local OTT |
| Cloud/ICT services | $1.5B | $3.8B | 36% | Operators, hyperscalers |
| IoT/M2M | $0.8B | $2.2B | 40% | Operators, specialists |
| Enterprise solutions | $2.2B | $4.5B | 27% | Operators, SIs |
Content and Media Landscape
| Platform | Type | Subscribers (M) | Content Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multichoice/DStv | Pay-TV | 22 | Premium sports, local content |
| Showmax | Streaming | 4.5 | African originals, sports |
| Netflix | Streaming | 3.2 | Global + local content |
| YouTube Premium | Streaming | 2.8 | UGC, music |
| Local OTT | Streaming | 8.0 | Nollywood, local content |
Market-by-Market Analysis
Nigeria: Scale and Complexity
| Metric | 2024 | 2027 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMT market size | $28B | $42B | 14% |
| Mobile subscribers | 220M | 260M | 6% |
| Internet penetration | 55% | 72% | 9% |
| Data centre capacity | 180 MW | 520 MW | 42% |
Key Dynamics: Largest market by population; regulatory complexity; currency volatility; infrastructure gaps in power and fibre.
South Africa: Mature but Competitive
| Metric | 2024 | 2027 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMT market size | $22B | $28B | 8% |
| Mobile subscribers | 95M | 105M | 3% |
| Internet penetration | 72% | 82% | 4% |
| Data centre capacity | 320 MW | 680 MW | 28% |
Key Dynamics: Most developed market; intense competition; load-shedding challenges; hyperscaler hub.
Kenya: Innovation Leader
| Metric | 2024 | 2027 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMT market size | $8B | $13B | 17% |
| Mobile subscribers | 65M | 78M | 6% |
| Internet penetration | 48% | 65% | 11% |
| Mobile money penetration | 85% | 92% | 3% |
Key Dynamics: M-Pesa ecosystem; innovation hub; progressive regulation; regional gateway.
Morocco: Gateway to Africa
| Metric | 2024 | 2027 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMT market size | $6B | $9B | 14% |
| Mobile subscribers | 52M | 58M | 4% |
| Internet penetration | 88% | 95% | 3% |
| 5G subscribers | 1.9M | 8M | 61% |
Key Dynamics: Highest internet penetration; European proximity; automotive/aerospace verticals; stable regulatory environment.
Investment Implications
Sector Attractiveness Assessment
| Segment | Growth | Margins | Competition | Regulation | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile money | ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | 4.0/5 |
| Data centres | ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★★ | 4.3/5 |
| Tower infrastructure | ★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★★ | 4.3/5 |
| Fibre networks | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | 3.5/5 |
| Mobile operators | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★★ | 2.8/5 |
Risk Factors
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency volatility | High | High | USD revenue, hedging |
| Regulatory change | Medium | High | Engagement, diversification |
| Political instability | Medium | High | Country diversification |
| Infrastructure gaps | High | Medium | Captive infrastructure |
| Competition | High | Medium | Differentiation, scale |
Strategic Recommendations
For Operators
- Accelerate 5G B2B: Focus on enterprise and FWA use cases with clear ROI
- Expand digital services: Mobile money, cloud, and content diversification
- Infrastructure partnerships: Tower sales, fibre sharing to optimise capital
- Regional expansion: Scale advantages through pan-African presence
For Investors
- Infrastructure focus: Towers, data centres, and fibre offer attractive risk-adjusted returns
- Fintech selectivity: Consolidation creates winners; focus on scale players
- Country diversification: Balance growth markets with stable markets
- ESG integration: Renewable energy and financial inclusion alignment
For Policymakers
- Spectrum release: Accelerate 5G spectrum allocation
- Infrastructure sharing: Mandate active sharing to reduce costs
- Digital inclusion: Universal service funds for rural connectivity
- Regulatory harmonisation: Regional coordination on data protection and licensing
Conclusion
Africa's TMT sector stands at an inflection point. The combination of demographic tailwinds, infrastructure investment, and digital adoption creates compelling opportunities for operators and investors willing to navigate complexity.
Key takeaways:
- 5G is real: Commercial deployment is accelerating, with B2B as the primary value driver
- Fintech consolidation: Super-apps and M&A are reshaping the competitive landscape
- Infrastructure boom: $30B+ investment pipeline through 2030
- Regulatory evolution: Modernisation enabling growth whilst introducing compliance requirements
- Diversification imperative: Operators must expand beyond connectivity to capture value
EXXING advises operators, investors, and governments on African TMT strategy, from market entry through operational optimisation and transaction support.
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References
[1] GSMA Intelligence (2024). The Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024. GSM Association.
[2] Ericsson (2024). Ericsson Mobility Report: Middle East and Africa. Ericsson.
[3] Partech Partners (2024). Africa Tech Venture Capital Report 2024. Partech.
[4] Africa Data Centres Association (2024). African Data Centre Market Report. ADCA.
[5] World Bank (2024). Digital Economy for Africa Initiative Progress Report. World Bank Group.
